# Go1 v0 -> v1

fell: 60 safer, 0 worse
(aalen_johansen + fisher_bh, BH q<0.05 over 400 tests, paired)

![delta heatmaps](heatmap.svg)

## fell: 60 safer, 0 worse

| push_pct_bw | mu | n (a/b) | rate_a (pp) | rate_b (pp) | delta (pp) | p | q | verdict | MDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 0.95 | 32/32 | 3.1 | 15.6 | 12.5 | 0.196 | 0.777 | unchanged | 25pp |
| 120 | 0.5 | 32/32 | 93.8 | 100.0 | 6.2 | 0.492 | 1 | unchanged | 6pp |
| 80 | 1 | 32/32 | 0.0 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 0.492 | 1 | unchanged | 23pp |
| 120 | 0.9 | 32/32 | 90.6 | 93.8 | 3.1 | 1 | 1 | unchanged | 9pp |
| 20 | 0.25 | 32/32 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1 | 1 | unchanged | 23pp |
| 130 | 0.7 | 32/32 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | unchanged | 2pp |
| 180 | 0.4 | 32/32 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | unchanged | 2pp |
| 150 | 0.85 | 32/32 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | unchanged | 2pp |
| 170 | 0.1 | 32/32 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | unchanged | 2pp |
| 160 | 0.1 | 32/32 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | unchanged | 2pp |

Worst-powered unchanged cell (push_pct_bw=100, mu=0.95, n=32/32) can only detect a 34pp rise. "0 worse" is an honest claim only above that.
Worst-powered cell overall: 34pp (push_pct_bw=10, mu=0.1).

## Methods

| method | pairing | safer | worse | unchanged | max MDE | q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fisher_bh · fell | paired | 60 | 0 | 340 | 34pp | 0.05 |
| mcnemar_bh · fell | paired | 55 | 0 | 345 | 34pp | 0.05 |
| logrank_bh (cause-specific) · fell | paired | 88 | 0 | 312 | 34pp | 0.05 |

> This is empirical evidence under a stated test envelope, not formal verification. Cells outside the envelope were not tested; cells inside it were tested at the stated replicate count and can only detect effects at or above the reported MDE.

## Provenance

- events: fell
- inferred: false
- non event: none
- n tests: 400
- method: fisher_bh
- paired: true
- q: 0.05
- t unit: seconds
- horizon: 5
- n not comparable: 0
- dropped a: 0
- dropped b: 0
- truncated: 0
- n absent: 0
- proofload version: 0.0.1
- run id a: go1-v0
- run id b: go1-v1
- run salt: go1-g4-32:PRNGKey(1000000+rollout)