# 20260909T102454Z-1090 vs 20260909T102639Z-21a3: fell

fell: 0 safer, 14 worse
(aalen_johansen + mcnemar_bh, BH q<0.05 over 14 tests, paired)

![delta heatmaps](heatmap.svg)

## fell: 0 safer, 14 worse

| push_velocity_y | foot_friction | n (a/b) | rate_a (pp) | rate_b (pp) | delta (pp) | p | q | verdict | MDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.625 | 1 | 100/100 | 12.0 | 69.0 | 57.0 | 3.92e-14 | 5.49e-13 | worse | 16pp |
| 0.65 | 1 | 100/100 | 17.0 | 69.0 | 52.0 | 9.03e-12 | 3.63e-11 | worse | 17pp |
| 0.65 | 0.6 | 100/100 | 21.0 | 71.0 | 50.0 | 2.97e-11 | 8.32e-11 | worse | 18pp |
| 0.6 | 0.6 | 100/100 | 12.0 | 62.0 | 50.0 | 1.04e-11 | 3.63e-11 | worse | 16pp |
| 0.6 | 1 | 100/100 | 12.0 | 62.0 | 50.0 | 3.17e-12 | 2.22e-11 | worse | 16pp |
| 0.625 | 0.6 | 100/100 | 19.0 | 64.0 | 45.0 | 1.36e-09 | 3.17e-09 | worse | 18pp |
| 0.7 | 0.6 | 100/100 | 39.0 | 81.0 | 42.0 | 3.26e-09 | 6.51e-09 | worse | 20pp |
| 0.675 | 0.6 | 100/100 | 28.0 | 66.0 | 38.0 | 6.97e-08 | 1.22e-07 | worse | 19pp |
| 0.675 | 1 | 100/100 | 38.0 | 72.0 | 34.0 | 8.22e-06 | 1.15e-05 | worse | 20pp |
| 0.725 | 0.6 | 100/100 | 48.0 | 79.0 | 31.0 | 5.54e-06 | 8.62e-06 | worse | 19pp |
| 0.725 | 1 | 100/100 | 53.0 | 82.0 | 29.0 | 1.54e-05 | 1.96e-05 | worse | 19pp |
| 0.75 | 0.6 | 100/100 | 61.0 | 88.0 | 27.0 | 2.53e-05 | 2.95e-05 | worse | 18pp |
| 0.7 | 1 | 100/100 | 41.0 | 65.0 | 24.0 | 1.82e-04 | 1.96e-04 | worse | 20pp |
| 0.75 | 1 | 100/100 | 62.0 | 81.0 | 19.0 | 0.0054 | 0.0054 | worse | 18pp |

No unchanged cells; every cell moved significantly.
Worst-powered cell overall: 20pp (push_velocity_y=0.7, foot_friction=1).

> This is empirical evidence under a stated test envelope, not formal verification. Cells outside the envelope were not tested; cells inside it were tested at the stated replicate count and can only detect effects at or above the reported MDE.

## Provenance

- events: fell
- inferred: false
- non event: none
- n tests: 14
- method: mcnemar_bh
- paired: true
- q: 0.05
- t unit: steps
- horizon: 500
- n not comparable: 0
- dropped a: 0
- dropped b: 0
- truncated: 0
- n absent: 0
- proofload version: 0.0.1
- run id a: 20260909T102454Z-1090
- run id b: 20260909T102639Z-21a3
- run salt: 8c41de05439a6d62