# 20260909T003230Z-16d4: fell

![heatmaps](heatmap.svg)

## fell

fell: cumulative incidence at horizon 500 (pp)

| push_velocity_y | checkpoint | n | F at horizon (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.675 | model_2250.pt | 100 | 100.0 |
| 0.675 | model_1250.pt | 100 | 92.0 |
| 0.6 | model_1250.pt | 100 | 84.0 |
| 0.525 | model_1250.pt | 100 | 70.0 |
| 0.675 | model_3000.pt | 100 | 70.0 |
| 0.45 | model_1250.pt | 100 | 68.0 |
| 0.6 | model_3000.pt | 100 | 66.0 |
| 0.6 | model_1000.pt | 100 | 65.0 |
| 0.675 | model_1000.pt | 100 | 63.0 |
| 0.675 | model_2000.pt | 100 | 61.0 |
| 0.675 | model_1750.pt | 100 | 61.0 |
| 0.675 | model_2500.pt | 100 | 57.0 |
| 0.675 | model_1500.pt | 100 | 57.0 |
| 0.6 | model_1500.pt | 100 | 53.0 |
| 0.6 | model_2500.pt | 100 | 49.0 |
| 0.525 | model_3000.pt | 100 | 49.0 |
| 0.6 | model_2000.pt | 100 | 44.0 |
| 0.525 | model_1000.pt | 100 | 44.0 |
| 0.525 | model_1500.pt | 100 | 43.0 |
| 0.6 | model_1750.pt | 100 | 39.0 |
| 0.675 | model_5999.pt | 100 | 37.0 |
| 0.45 | model_1000.pt | 100 | 34.0 |
| 0.525 | model_2500.pt | 100 | 32.0 |
| 0.45 | model_3000.pt | 100 | 32.0 |
| 0.45 | model_1500.pt | 100 | 32.0 |
| 0.525 | model_2000.pt | 100 | 24.0 |
| 0.45 | model_1750.pt | 100 | 21.0 |
| 0.525 | model_1750.pt | 100 | 20.0 |
| 0.45 | model_2500.pt | 100 | 18.0 |
| 0.6 | model_5999.pt | 100 | 15.0 |
| 0.525 | model_5999.pt | 100 | 5.0 |
| 0.45 | model_2000.pt | 100 | 3.0 |
| 0.45 | model_5999.pt | 100 | 2.0 |
| 0.45 | model_2250.pt | 100 | 0.0 |
| 0.6 | model_2250.pt | 100 | 0.0 |
| 0.525 | model_2250.pt | 100 | 0.0 |

n=100..100 per cell, 0 cells with n < 16

> This is empirical evidence under a stated test envelope, not formal verification. Cells outside the envelope were not tested; cells inside it were tested at the stated replicate count and can only detect effects at or above the reported MDE.

## Provenance

- events: fell
- horizon: 500
- n cells: 72
- proofload version: 0.0.1
- run id: 20260909T003230Z-16d4
- run salt: 95353ec54c0fe671
- t unit: steps